UK Warned of Emerging Gas Supply Crisis by End of Decade

Energy Advisers Issue Stark Warning

Energy advisers have issued a significant warning to UK ministers regarding an emerging gas supply crisis that could impact homes and businesses during the coldest days. The National Energy System Operator (NESO), in its first annual gas security assessment since its establishment last year, highlighted an 'emerging risk to gas supply security' that could materialise by the end of the decade, specifically looking towards the winters of 2030/31 and 2035/36.

Potential for Severe Shortfalls

The warning outlines a scenario where a prolonged period of severe cold weather, such as an 'unlikely event' of a one-in-20-year cold spell lasting 11 days, coincides with the loss of a 'single largest piece of gas infrastructure'. Under these conditions, Britain's gas supply would fall significantly short of demand. The consequences could be dire, potentially triggering emergency measures that include cutting off gas to factories, power stations, and, in extreme situations, even homes.

Underlying Factors and Future Reliance

Several factors contribute to this projected risk. NESO's report indicates diminishing reserves of gas from the North Sea, with output from the UK Continental Shelf expected to continue shrinking. While overall gas demand is projected to decline as the UK decarbonises, peak-day demand is falling at a slower rate, creating a vulnerability. The UK remains heavily reliant on gas, with the vast majority of homes using gas boilers for heating and gas playing a critical role in electricity generation. Past decisions, such as the lack of investment in new gas storage facilities, have also been cited as contributing to the current energy security landscape.

Government Response and Mitigation Strategies

In response to the warning, Energy Minister Michael Shanks stated that the country must 'do whatever it takes' to avert a crisis. He pledged that the government would 'redouble our efforts to decarbonise' the economy and ensure sufficient gas storage and import capacity, acknowledging that the previous government 'failed to plan for shortages'. A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) reiterated that gas will remain a key component of the energy system during the transition to cleaner energy, and that decarbonisation is the most effective route to long-term energy security. NESO has suggested several mitigation measures, including:

• Reducing peak-day demand through decarbonisation efforts.
• Maximising the efficiency and output of existing infrastructure.
• Developing new supply options, such as additional storage facilities, LNG terminals, or onshore pipelines.

The government has reportedly launched a consultation in response to NESO's findings.

Current Winter Outlook and Ongoing Vulnerabilities

For the immediate future, the National Gas Gas Winter Outlook 2025 report, published on October 9, 2025, provides some reassurance for the upcoming winter. It forecasts sufficient supply to meet peak demand for winter 2025/26, maintaining a positive supply margin even when accounting for potential network outages. However, the report also notes that margins for this winter are tighter than in the previous four years. Gas storage and inventories continue to be identified as the 'single biggest vulnerability' during periods of cold weather and high demand.