UK Net Migration Expected to Fall to Pre-Brexit Levels, Think Tank Predicts

Anticipated Decline in Net Migration

The United Kingdom is poised for a significant shift in its net migration figures, with the British Future think tank predicting a fall to around 300,000. These new figures, expected to be released today, November 27, 2025, would bring net migration levels back to those observed before the 2016 Brexit referendum. Pre-Brexit, net migration typically fluctuated between 200,000 and 300,000 annually.

The prediction comes as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has already revised its estimates, indicating a substantial decrease. The ONS now estimates that net migration fell to 345,000 in the year to December 2024, a notable drop from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023. This revised figure for December 2024 is lower than the initial estimate of 431,000.

Factors Contributing to the Fall

Several factors are believed to be contributing to the anticipated reduction in net migration. The ONS has highlighted an increase in emigration by UK nationals as a key driver of the change. Furthermore, policy changes implemented in early 2024 are beginning to show their impact, particularly affecting the number of dependants accompanying students and workers.

Sunder Katwala, director of British Future, commented on the situation, stating, 'Net migration is falling, with today's figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn't caught up.'

Public Perception vs. Reality

Despite the predicted and observed decline in net migration, research conducted by Ipsos and British Future reveals a significant disconnect in public awareness. Their findings indicate that most Britons are unaware of the falling numbers. Only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in the coming year, while 38% anticipate an increase and 31% expect it to remain the same.

The research also showed that 56% of the public believed immigration increased last year, even though the numbers had actually halved. This suggests a gap between official statistics and public perception regarding migration trends in the United Kingdom.

Government Stance and Future Outlook

The current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has pledged to 'significantly' reduce net migration over the next four years. This aligns with a long-standing political objective, as previous Conservative governments between 2010 and 2019 also aimed to reduce net migration to under 100,000 annually, a target that was never achieved.

Looking ahead, the ONS's long-term projections assume net migration will level off at 340,000 per year from June 2028 onwards. Some analyses suggest that, without further policy interventions, long-run net migration could stabilize around 300,000 or more per year.