Belarus Plans 2026 Budget Deficit of 1.5% of GDP, Parliament Approves First Reading

2026 Budget Outlines Deficit and Priorities

Minsk, Belarus – Belarus is planning a 2026 republican budget deficit of 1.5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), amounting to 4.35 billion Belarusian rubles. The draft budget successfully passed its first reading in the lower house of parliament on Monday, November 24, 2025.

According to the Finance Ministry, the projected deficit for 2026 represents an almost 10% reduction compared to the estimated deficit of 4.82 billion rubles for the current year.

Financial Projections and Revenue Streams

The proposed budget for 2026 anticipates total revenues of 54.38 billion Belarusian rubles, marking a 12.4% increase from the 2025 revenue estimates. Expenditures are set at 58.73 billion Belarusian rubles, an increase of 10.4% over the anticipated spending for 2025.

Key sources contributing to the national budget's tax revenue are expected to be:

• Value-added tax
• Excise taxes
• Revenue from foreign economic activity

Economic Targets and Social Focus

The 2026 budget framework aligns with broader economic forecast parameters approved by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. These targets include a GDP growth of 2.8%, an increase in investment from all sources by 3.1%, and export growth of goods and services by 3.7%. Real disposable household income is projected to rise by 4.8%.

A significant aspect of the 2026 budget is its continued social orientation. Priorities for expenditure include education, healthcare, measures aimed at improving the population's quality of life, and support for large families. The 'family capital program' alone is estimated to receive 279.9 million Belarusian rubles.

Challenges and Economic Outlook

Despite the outlined plans, some economic analysts describe the country's main economic parameters for 2026 as 'quite tense' or 'moderately ambitious,' citing difficult external conditions such as sanctions pressure and the situation in the Russian market. The government has set an inflation ceiling of 7% for 2026.

Concerns have also been raised regarding Belarus's external debt, with payments in 2026 expected to reach 10.4 billion rubles, double the amount for the current year. Refinancing this debt is considered challenging, potentially impacting the National Bank's reserves. Additionally, the budget indicates a notable increase in funding for law enforcement agencies by 1.4 billion rubles, while military spending is set to decrease by 210 million rubles, suggesting a focus on internal control.