New Zealand Faces Significant 'Exit Wave' Amid Economic Headwinds

Migration Trends Show Significant Shift

New Zealand is currently navigating a substantial shift in its migration patterns, characterized by a significant increase in citizens departing the country and a reduction in foreign arrivals. Provisional estimates from Stats NZ reveal a net migration gain of 27,100 in 2024, a sharp decrease from the 128,300 recorded in 2023. This figure places the overall net migration just below the long-term average of 29,100 seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The primary driver of this 'exit wave' is a record net migration loss of 47,100 New Zealand citizens in 2024, marking the largest such loss for a calendar year. This was a result of approximately 72,000 migrant departures, significantly outweighing the 24,900 citizen arrivals. In comparison, the net loss of citizens in 2023 was 43,300.

Economic Factors Fueling Departures

A confluence of economic challenges is largely attributed to the increased emigration. Citizens are reportedly leaving due to factors such as:

• High costs of living
• Rising interest rates
• Weak economic growth
• Stagnant wages
• Limited job opportunities

New Zealand's economy did not experience growth in the first half of 2025, and the unemployment rate peaked at around 5.4% in the same year. The country's per capita GDP has fallen by 4.6% since September 2022, indicating a recession deeper than the global financial crisis. Many departing New Zealanders, estimated between 56% and 58%, are choosing to relocate to neighboring Australia, where average weekly incomes are approximately 26% higher and better opportunities are perceived.

Impact on Non-Citizen Migration

The trend is not limited to New Zealand citizens. The net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens also saw a substantial decline, falling from 171,600 in 2023 to 74,200 in 2024. This reduction is primarily due to a decrease in migrant arrivals, which dropped by 76,800 to 130,900, alongside an increase in departures to 56,700. Citizens from India, the Philippines, and China collectively accounted for two-thirds of this fall in non-citizen net migration.

Government Response and Future Outlook

New Zealand government officials have acknowledged the migration challenges. Immigration Minister Erica Stanford stated that citizens often seek opportunities overseas during economic downturns, with an expectation that many will return as economic conditions improve. Finance Minister Nicola Willis underscored the importance of economic growth to create more jobs and opportunities domestically.

In response to workforce gaps and the outflow of skilled individuals, the government plans to introduce new residency pathways starting mid-2026. These pathways are designed to attract and retain skilled and trades workers. Economists have expressed concerns that the ongoing 'hollowing out' of the workforce could exacerbate labor shortages and strain public services across the country.