New Zealand Grapples with 'Exit Wave' as Net Migration Hits Decade Low

Record Departures Drive Net Migration Decline

New Zealand is currently facing a notable 'exit wave,' characterized by a significant increase in citizens leaving the country and a reduction in foreign arrivals. Provisional data from Stats NZ indicates that the annual net migration gain for the September 2025 year stood at just 12,400, a sharp decrease from 42,400 in the same period last year. This marks the lowest net migration gain for a September year since 2013, excluding the pandemic years.

The primary factor contributing to this decline is a record exodus of New Zealand citizens. In the year ending September 2025, a net migration loss of 46,400 New Zealand citizens was recorded, driven by 72,700 departures. Similarly, for the year ending August 2025, 73,900 New Zealand citizens departed, surpassing the previous record of 73,300 in July 2025, resulting in a net migration loss of 47,900 for citizens. More than half, approximately 58%, of New Zealand citizens who left in 2024 chose to move to Australia.

Economic Pressures and Cost of Living Fuel Exodus

Several interconnected factors are driving this outward migration. A key reason cited by departing citizens and economists is the high cost of living in New Zealand, encompassing rising food prices, mortgage repayments, and housing affordability challenges. Many New Zealanders are seeking better financial prospects across the Tasman, where average weekly incomes are higher and the cost of living, including fuel, electricity, and food, is often lower.

The country's slow economic growth and a weak economy are also significant contributors. New Zealand has experienced a recession deeper than the global financial crisis, with per capita GDP falling by 4.6% since September 2022. This has led to limited job opportunities, a softening job market, and rising unemployment, which peaked around 5.4% in 2025. The allure of 'overseas experience' (OE), a traditional rite of passage for many Kiwis, is reportedly amplified by these economic conditions.

Impact on Non-Citizens and Broader Concerns

While citizen departures are a major component of the 'exit wave,' there has also been a reduction in the net gain of non-New Zealand citizens. The provisional annual net migration gain for non-New Zealand citizens in 2024 was 74,200, a decrease from 171,600 in 2023. This fall is largely attributed to fewer migrant arrivals, with citizens from India, the Philippines, and China accounting for two-thirds of this reduction. Stricter immigration policies, uncertain pathways to residency, and difficulties with family reunification have also been identified as factors influencing non-citizens' decisions to leave.

The ongoing migration trends raise concerns about a potential 'brain drain,' particularly the loss of skilled workers, and challenges to workforce availability in critical sectors such as healthcare and education. New Zealand's population growth has consequently dipped, from 2.3% in 2023 to 0.7% in the year to June 2025. This demographic shift is expected to impact the housing market and place strain on public services.

Government Response and Future Outlook

In response to these trends, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford has stated that New Zealanders typically seek opportunities overseas during economic downturns and are expected to return as the economy improves. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has underscored the government's commitment to growing the economy, creating jobs, and fostering opportunities within the country. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's administration is focused on rebuilding the economy, lowering the cost of living, and enhancing public services to encourage citizens to stay and attract new talent.