Germany Nears Agreement on Future Military Service Amidst Bundeswehr Expansion Goals

Pistorius Optimistic as Military Service Debate Reaches Crucial Stage

Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has voiced strong confidence that an agreement on the future structure of military service will be reached soon, potentially within the coming week. The anticipated legislation aims to bolster the ranks of the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, and is expected to come into effect by January 2026.

The discussions are critical for Germany's defense posture, particularly in light of the 'Zeitenwende' – a turning point in German foreign and security policy prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Ambitious Goals for Bundeswehr Expansion

The primary objective of the proposed reforms is to significantly increase the Bundeswehr's personnel. As of March 2025, the active military personnel stood at approximately 182,000. Germany aims to expand this to 260,000 active soldiers by the early 2030s or 2035, alongside an additional 200,000 reservists. This ambitious growth is driven by new NATO targets, which require Germany to provide an additional seven brigades, equating to roughly 40,000 soldiers.

The Bundeswehr has faced challenges in meeting troop targets since the suspension of compulsory military service in 2011 under then-Chancellor Angela Merkel. Years of underfunding and understaffing have left the armed forces struggling to maintain readiness.

Voluntary vs. Mandatory: The Core of the Debate

Minister Pistorius has put forward a model centered on voluntary military service. This proposal includes a compulsory questionnaire for all 18-year-old men (optional for women) to assess their willingness and suitability for service. Those who express interest would then be invited for further assessment. Volunteers would commit to a minimum service period of six months.

However, the central point of contention within Germany's governing coalition is how to address potential shortfalls if voluntary recruitment proves insufficient. Conservative politicians, including Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have advocated for a 'Danish model' or a lottery system for young men. Pistorius has expressed reservations about a lottery, arguing it might not attract the most motivated recruits and could alienate younger generations. He has stated that 'If voluntary service isn't enough, there will be no way around mandatory conscription.' Pistorius also emphasizes the necessity of universal medical examinations for all 18-year-olds to ascertain their operational capability.

Public Sentiment and Implementation Outlook

Public opinion on the reintroduction of military service is divided. While approximately 6 out of 10 Germans support conscription if voluntary recruitment falls short, a majority of those aged 18 to 29 oppose it. Despite this, overall public support for reintroducing conscription had risen to 49% by March 2025.

The debate has led to visible tensions within the ruling coalition, with a planned press conference to announce a bill being canceled due to disagreements. Nevertheless, the new law is anticipated to take effect from January 1, 2026, with compulsory medical examinations for suitable recruits slated to begin by July 2027. The outcome of these discussions will significantly shape Germany's defense capabilities and its role within European security for years to come.