Macao's Economy Shows Robust Growth in Third Quarter
Macao's economy experienced a substantial surge in the third quarter of 2025, with its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growing by 8.0 percent year-on-year in real terms. This acceleration follows a 5.1 percent growth in the previous quarter and marks a significant recovery, according to preliminary data released by the city's Statistics and Census Service (DSEC). The total GDP for the period between July and September reached 103.86 billion patacas (approximately US$12.97 billion).
The DSEC highlighted that Macao's economic output in Q3 2025 has now recovered to 92.6 percent of the level recorded in the same period of 2019, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Tourism Sector Fuels Economic Expansion
The primary driver behind this robust economic performance was a strong rebound in the tourism sector. Exports of services, which predominantly comprise tourism-related activities, saw a significant increase of 10.5 percent year-on-year. This growth was directly linked to a notable rise in visitor arrivals, which climbed by 13.6 percent during the third quarter, bringing the total number of visitors to almost 10.5 million. The summer peak tourism season played a crucial role in this sustained development of the tourism branch of economic activity.
For the first three quarters of 2025, Macao recorded a total of 29,671,070 visitor arrivals, representing a 14.5 percent year-on-year increase. Visitors from Mainland China continued to be the largest source market, showing an 18.4 percent increase in the first nine months of the year.
Other Economic Contributions and Challenges
Beyond tourism, other components contributed to the overall economic picture:
- Private consumption expenditure in the local market saw a modest increase of 0.8 percent year-on-year.
- Government spending in the region rose by 2.7 percent.
However, investment activity presented a contrasting trend, with gross fixed capital formation falling sharply by 26.1 percent. This decline was attributed to a decrease in both private and public construction projects, reflecting ongoing challenges in the city's property market.
Economic Outlook
Despite the strong third-quarter performance, the economic outlook for the full year 2025 has seen some adjustments. The University of Macao (UM) revised its forecast for the region's economic growth downward to 6.8 percent, partly due to the potential impact of United States tariffs on Chinese tourists' confidence. Similarly, financial rating agency Fitch predicted that Macao's economic growth would slow to 6.9 percent this year, citing a 'slower' recovery in tourism and gambling.
5 Comments
paracelsus
A strong tourism season clearly boosted Macao's Q3 figures, which is good for local businesses. However, the heavy reliance on this sector makes the economy vulnerable to external factors like tariffs or travel restrictions.
anubis
It's encouraging to see visitor numbers almost back to 2019 levels, demonstrating strong demand, but the downward revision of the full-year forecast suggests underlying vulnerabilities like geopolitical tensions could still hinder full recovery.
paracelsus
Growth is slowing for the full year. Not as great as it seems.
eliphas
While the tourism rebound is definitely a positive sign for Macao's immediate economy, the significant decline in fixed capital formation raises concerns about long-term sustainable growth beyond just visitor numbers.
paracelsus
While visitor arrivals are up and boosting the economy, the forecast slowdown for the full year and the lack of robust private consumption growth outside tourism suggest that everyday citizens might not be feeling the full benefit of this surge.