Turkey's Food Inflation Continues Upward Trend for Third Consecutive Month in October

Persistent Rise in Food Prices

Turkey's food inflation continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month in October 2025, deepening concerns over the cost of living in the country. The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV) reported that its Food Price Index increased by 2.7 percent month-on-month and a substantial 32.3 percent year-on-year. This sustained rise highlights ongoing pressures on household budgets across the nation.

Other independent assessments also indicated significant increases. The United Public Employees Confederation (Birleşik Kamu-İş) calculated a 3.7 percent monthly rise in food prices for October, with an annual increase of 57.1 percent in their popular food basket. In Istanbul, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ICOC) noted a 4.05 percent increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages during the same period.

Broader Inflationary Landscape

The surge in food prices contributes significantly to Turkey's overall inflation figures. A Reuters poll projected the country's monthly inflation rate for October to be around 2.83 percent, with the year-on-year inflation hovering near 32 percent. Similarly, PA Turkey anticipated October's overall inflation (TÜFE) to be between 3.1 percent and 3.25 percent. For September 2025, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) reported an annual inflation rate of 33.29 percent, marking an increase from 32.95 percent in August, with food and non-alcoholic beverages rising 4.62 percent monthly and 36.06 percent annually.

The Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body, presented a higher annual inflation figure of 63.23 percent for September.

Factors Driving the Increases

Several factors are contributing to the persistent food inflation. Experts and officials have pointed to a combination of issues:

• Seasonal Impacts: The inclusion of winter products in the vegetable category often leads to price increases.
• Supply Bottlenecks: Ongoing challenges in the supply chain continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
• Agricultural Conditions: Climate risks, including widespread frost and drought earlier in 2025, have severely impacted crop yields for fruits, grains, and legumes, directly affecting food prices.
• Currency Depreciation: The Turkish lira's significant depreciation, trading above ₺40 per U.S. dollar in 2025, makes imported goods, including agricultural inputs, more expensive.
• Government Policy: Critics argue that government policies, including market intervention and weak agricultural planning, exacerbate the problem.

Economic and Social Impact

The continuous rise in food prices has intensified public frustration over the escalating cost of living. Food and non-alcoholic beverages constitute a substantial portion, approximately 25 percent, of Turkey's Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, making their price movements highly impactful on household finances. Households in Turkey are reportedly anticipating an average inflation rate of over 54 percent in the next 12 months, reflecting a deep-seated lack of confidence in price stability. This situation positions Turkey among the OECD countries with some of the highest inflation rates.