French Political Turmoil Threatens Key EU Security and Defense Initiatives

Deepening Political Instability in France

France is currently navigating a period of profound political instability, characterized by a hung parliament that emerged from the 2024 legislative election. This has led to a fragmented political landscape with three main blocs—the left-wing New Popular Front, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance, and the far-right National Rally (RN)—none of which can command a stable majority.

The turmoil has resulted in an unprecedented succession of governments, with President Macron appointing four prime ministers within 15 months. Sébastien Lecornu, the current Prime Minister, notably resigned after less than a month in office, only to be reappointed four days later. This 'revolving-door' of ministries has fueled a 'lack of trust and confidence' in France's ability to make significant political decisions, according to experts.

A key flashpoint in this instability is the nation's budget. Previous governments led by Michel Barnier and François Bayrou both collapsed over budgetary disputes. Macron's controversial pension reform, which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, remains a highly unpopular policy and a source of ongoing political contention.

Budgetary Impasse and Fiscal Challenges

The political deadlock is exacerbated by a severe budget impasse. France is grappling with a ballooning public debt, currently standing at 114% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with projections indicating it could exceed 120% by the end of the decade. The annual budget deficit has also surged, reaching 5.8% last year and an estimated 6.1% in 2024, significantly exceeding the European Union's mandated 3% limit.

The independent fiscal watchdog, the Haut Conseil des Finances Publiques (HCFP), has expressed concerns that the government's 2026 budget projections are 'overly optimistic' and that planned savings may be 'unrealistic'. This fiscal uncertainty has made financial markets jittery, leading to increased borrowing costs for France and potential credit rating downgrades. French bonds have recently traded at higher interest rates than those of Spain and even Greece.

Despite these fiscal pressures, President Macron has announced an increase in military spending, committing an additional €10 billion over two years, with €3.5 billion allocated for 2026. This aims to boost the defense budget to €64 billion by 2027. However, the ongoing budget impasse could still delay or suspend these planned increases, impacting France's defense capabilities.

Threat to Franco-German Military Projects and EU Security

The political and fiscal instability in France poses a significant threat to major Franco-German military projects and broader European Union security initiatives. Two critical projects, the Main Ground Combat System (MGCS) for next-generation battle tanks and the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter jet program, are particularly at risk of stagnation and delays.

German politicians and experts have voiced concerns, with one expert stating, 'My fear on both of these projects is, we may have reached a dead end.' There is growing wariness in Germany about undertaking or bankrolling initiatives that rely on a fiscally unstable France. The FCAS program, in particular, has already faced repeated delays due to 'infighting over workshare and intellectual property rights'.

Beyond specific projects, France's internal disarray weakens the EU's strategic cohesion and its ability to present a unified diplomatic front on critical international issues, including the war in Ukraine, relations with Russia, and China. The Franco-German partnership, traditionally an anchor for Europe's political and defense integration, is disrupted, potentially hindering progress on initiatives related to security, defense, energy, and strategic autonomy. The paralysis in Paris undermines the EU's capacity to act strategically and cohesively at a time when the union faces multiple global crises.