Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Harvest of 177.6 Million Tons for 2025-26

Record-Breaking Soybean Production Anticipated

Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab), an agency under the Ministry of Agriculture, has projected a record soybean harvest of 177.6 million metric tons for the 2025-26 agricultural season. This forecast represents a significant 3.6% increase over the previous season's production of 171.47 million tons. The optimistic outlook is primarily attributed to an expansion in planted area and sustained high demand from international markets, notably China.

Drivers of Expansion: Area and Profitability

The projected record harvest is largely fueled by an anticipated increase in the area dedicated to soybean cultivation. Conab expects the planted area to grow by approximately 3.6% to 3.7%, reaching between 49.08 and 49.1 million hectares (121 to 121.279 million acres). This expansion is driven by several factors:

• Continued profitability of soybean cultivation.
• Availability of land for agricultural expansion.
• Favorable weather conditions observed in most growing regions.
• Technological advancements and improved productivity.

Brazil's Center-West region continues to be the leading production hub, accounting for roughly 49% of the country's total soybean output. Key states like Mato Grosso and Paraná are at the forefront of planting efforts.

Global Demand and China's Pivotal Role

Strong international demand remains a critical factor underpinning Brazil's expanding soybean production. Brazil is expected to solidify its position as the world's largest soybean exporter, with exports potentially exceeding 112 million metric tons in the upcoming season.

China continues to be the primary destination for Brazilian soybeans, with significant import volumes reinforcing its role as Brazil's top customer. This strong trade relationship is further bolstered by expectations of reduced U.S. soybean exports, creating additional opportunities for Brazilian suppliers in the global market. Domestically, demand from Brazil's soy crushing industry is also robust, driven by the production of biodiesel and animal feed, including the implementation of the B15 biodiesel mandate.

Outlook and Potential Challenges

The forecast, detailed in Conab's 'Outlook for Agriculture 2025/2026,' highlights the significant economic impact of the soybean sector on Brazil. While the outlook is overwhelmingly positive, some reports acknowledge potential challenges, such as the possibility of a La Niña phenomenon later in the cycle, which could alter rainfall patterns. Discussions surrounding the potential relaxation or termination of the 'Soy Moratorium' also suggest further expansion of planted area could occur in the coming years.