Canada's National Security Strategy Revision Disrupted by Shifting Global Landscape

Revision Efforts Halted Amid Geopolitical Shifts

Efforts to revise Canada's national security strategy have been disrupted, with a newly revealed memo indicating that many of the underlying assumptions for the update were rendered 'no longer valid' by significant global changes. The confidential note, obtained through an Access to Information Act request, was sent on March 20, 2025, by then-Privy Council clerk John Hannaford to Prime Minister Mark Carney and national security and intelligence adviser Nathalie Drouin.

The memo highlighted 'changes to Canada's strategic environment' that meant the ongoing work on a draft strategy was based on outdated premises. This disruption occurred less than a week after Mark Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister, against a backdrop of heightened trade tensions with the United States under President Donald Trump.

A World More Dangerous: Factors Invalidating Assumptions

The need for a reassessment stems from a dramatically altered global context. Prime Minister Carney himself acknowledged at a cabinet planning forum that the world is 'a more dangerous place than in the 1990s and the early part of this century.' Key factors contributing to this evolving threat landscape include:

• Shifting Global Power Dynamics: The 'rules-based international order is shifting, driven by growing competition among major powers,' according to a Privy Council Office spokesperson.
• Russia's Aggression: Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shocked liberal democracies and underscored the return of geostrategic competition, posing a long-term challenge to international order.
• Assertive China: China's assertive behavior on the international stage, including foreign interference, espionage, and cyberthreats, is a significant concern for Canada. China's ambitions to become a 'polar power' also impact Arctic security.
• Climate Change: The disproportionate impact of climate change on the Arctic is creating new security challenges and increasing the region's accessibility, necessitating enhanced defense measures.
• Technological Advancements: New technologies, including artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and space technologies, are rapidly redefining conflict and introducing new forms of hybrid attacks and digitally enabled threats.
• Economic Security: There is a growing recognition that economic security is integral to national security, with concerns about strategic dependencies, critical supply chains, and foreign control over key innovation sectors.

Previous Commitments and Ongoing Security Initiatives

Canada's last comprehensive national security policy, 'Securing an Open Society,' was released in 2004 under Paul Martin's government. In April 2024, the government of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had committed to publishing a renewed national security strategy every four years, with the next one due in 2025, reflecting a new reality of uncertainty.

Despite the disruption to the overarching national security strategy, Canada has undertaken other significant security-related policy updates. In April 2024, the government released 'Our North, Strong and Free: A Renewed Vision for Canada's Defence,' a defense policy update driven by geopolitical turbulence and global uncertainty, particularly in the wake of Russia's actions in Ukraine. Additionally, Canada's Indo-Pacific Strategy, launched in late 2022, outlines efforts to promote peace, resilience, and security in the region through an enhanced military presence, intelligence, and cybersecurity.

Looking Ahead

The memo underscores the complexity of formulating a cohesive national security strategy in a world where assumptions can quickly become obsolete. While the specific details of the 'outdated premises' cannot be disclosed, the government has indicated that a new national security policy will be released 'in due course.' Public Safety Canada remains a key federal department responsible for coordinating national security efforts and developing policies to protect Canadians.