Greece's Green Energy Ambitions Face Hurdles Amid Solar Dominance and Stalled Offshore Wind

Introduction: A Green Transition at a Crossroads

Greece has made significant strides in its renewable energy transition, with green sources now comprising over 50% of its electricity mix. However, this rapid expansion, largely driven by photovoltaics, is encountering substantial challenges. An overreliance on solar power, coupled with slow progress in energy storage solutions and a stalled offshore wind program, threatens the nation's ability to meet its ambitious 2030 climate targets outlined in the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).

Overreliance on Photovoltaics Leads to Grid Strain

The country's solar energy capacity has surged, with photovoltaics accounting for approximately 23% of Greece's renewable capacity last year and 27% of electricity generation in the first quarter of 2025. While impressive, this success has led to an oversupply of electricity on sunny days, resulting in significant curtailments and instances of zero or negative prices in the day-ahead market. In 2024, curtailments doubled from the previous year, causing financial losses for producers and prompting some investors to exit the Greek market. The national grid operator has reportedly ordered thousands of solar producers to shut down during peak sun hours to prevent grid overload and potential blackouts.

Energy Storage Development Lags Behind

A critical bottleneck in Greece's energy transition is the insufficient development of energy storage infrastructure. Despite the rapid growth of renewables, the deployment of new technologies and storage solutions has been slow. The Hellenic Association of Photovoltaics (HELAPCO) estimates that at least 8 GW of storage capacity is required to prevent significant financial losses and manage the surplus energy. While Greece has introduced a new regulatory framework allocating 4.7 GW of connection capacity for storage projects, and a landmark 330 MW battery energy storage facility is planned in Thessaly by Metlen and the Karatzis Group for completion by 2026, the pace of implementation has been slower than needed. The first standalone battery projects, for instance, have seen their deadlines pushed back.

Offshore Wind Program at a Standstill

Another significant concern is the lack of progress in Greece's offshore wind farm program. Despite a law passed in 2022 and a target of 1.9 GW (or 2 GW by some accounts) of offshore wind farms by 2030, the program has made little headway. A joint ministerial decree for the National Offshore Wind Program has reportedly been awaiting signature for over a year. The Ministry of Environment and Energy is now considering restarting the program, focusing initially on preparatory work, with tenders for projects unlikely to be launched before 2028. This delay jeopardizes the country's ability to diversify its renewable energy mix, which is currently heavily dominated by photovoltaics.

Conclusion: Addressing the Challenges for 2030 Goals

Greece's updated NECP sets ambitious targets, including a 58% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, with renewables projected to contribute up to 82% of electricity production by 2030. To achieve these goals, the nation must overcome its current challenges. This includes accelerating the deployment of energy storage, diversifying its renewable energy portfolio beyond solar, and unblocking the stalled offshore wind program. Efforts are underway to double interconnection capacity to 5 GW by 2027, but a comprehensive and expedited strategy is crucial to ensure a stable and sustainable energy future for Greece.