Mexican Lawmaker Predicts End of Trilateral Trade Era Amid Rising Nationalism

Mexican Deputy Foresees Shift to Bilateral Trade

A prominent Mexican lawmaker, Deputy Germán Martínez Cázares, has declared that the period of trilateral trade agreements involving Mexico, Canada, and the United States is drawing to a close. Speaking to CBC News on Tuesday, October 7, 2025, during a session of Mexico's lower house, the Chamber of Deputies, Martínez Cázares attributed this impending shift to an increase in nationalism within both the U.S. and Mexican administrations. He suggested that future trade relations would likely be characterized by bilateral accords rather than comprehensive trilateral pacts.

The USMCA and Its Upcoming Review

The current trilateral agreement, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), came into effect on July 1, 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The USMCA is a complex legal treaty comprising 34 chapters and various annexes, designed to foster balanced and reciprocal trade. Key changes from NAFTA included increased environmental and labor regulations, higher incentives for automobile production in the U.S., and an expanded duty-free limit for Canadians purchasing U.S. goods online. The agreement is scheduled for a crucial review in 2026.

Nationalism's Influence on Trade Dynamics

Martínez Cázares, a former member of the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party, emphasized that the existing USMCA 'won't survive the stress exerted by the nationalism pushed by the current U.S. and Mexican administrations.' This sentiment aligns with observations of rising economic nationalism globally. In the U.S., President Donald Trump has historically favored bilateral deals and utilized tariffs as a negotiating tool, a strategy that has continued to impact trade relations. Similarly, Mexico has seen a strengthening of nationalism, partly in response to U.S. tariff threats, with President Claudia Sheinbaum promoting a 'Made in Mexico' campaign. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has also indicated that the upcoming USMCA review negotiations will 'probably' be more bilateral than trilateral.

Conflicting Views on the Future of Trilateralism

Despite Martínez Cázares's prediction, the official stance from the Mexican government, including President Claudia Sheinbaum, continues to stress commitment to the USMCA. Sheinbaum has stated that upholding the USMCA is the 'best path forward for North America' and essential for making the region 'the most competitive region in the world.' However, her administration has also engaged in bilateral initiatives, such as the Mexico-Canada Action Plan 2025–2028, which aims to facilitate trade and investment between the two nations. This dual approach highlights the complex interplay between trilateral commitments and the growing inclination towards bilateral arrangements in North American trade policy.