Preliminary September Inflation Data Released
Italy's EU-harmonised consumer price index (HICP) saw a year-on-year increase of 1.8% in September 2025, according to preliminary estimates released by the national statistics agency, ISTAT, on September 30, 2025. This figure represents an acceleration from the 1.6% annual rate recorded in August 2025 and slightly exceeded market expectations. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had predicted a median year-on-year rise of 1.7% for September.
Details of the Price Movement
On a monthly basis, the HICP increased by 1.3% in September. In comparison, Italy's national consumer price index (NIC) registered a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in September, remaining unchanged from the August figure. The monthly change for the NIC was a decrease of 0.2%.
Contributing Factors and Core Inflation
The overall increase in the HICP was driven by contrasting trends across various sectors. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and unprocessed food, remained stable at 2.2% year-on-year on the HICP index in September.
Key movements in price components included:
- Prices for unprocessed food showed a slowdown, moving from a +5.6% increase in August to +4.8% in September.
- Conversely, processed food including alcohol saw an acceleration, rising from +2.7% to +3.0%.
- Regulated energy products experienced a notable increase, from +12.9% to +14.0%.
- Non-regulated energy products also contributed to the upward pressure, with their decline easing from -4.8% to -3.7%.
- Prices for services related to transport decreased by 3.3% on a monthly basis.
Economic Context
The preliminary September inflation data indicates a slight uptick in price pressures within the Italian economy, surpassing the consensus forecast. This development will be closely watched by economists and policymakers, particularly in the context of broader Eurozone inflation trends.
5 Comments
Muchacha
This data points to a somewhat stronger economy than anticipated, which is positive. However, the reliance on volatile energy price increases to drive this inflation means it might not be a sustainable or broadly beneficial trend for all sectors.
Ongania
The acceleration to 1.8% might seem concerning, yet it's still below the ECB's 2% target. However, continued rises, especially in staple goods, could erode consumer confidence if wages don't follow suit.
Manolo Noriega
Prices are just going up again. Families will suffer.
Fuerza
It's true that the HICP rose more than expected, which indicates some upward price pressure. But the slowdown in unprocessed food prices offers a glimmer of relief, even as processed foods become more expensive.
Manolo Noriega
Exceeding forecasts is bad news for shoppers.