China Intensifies Diplomatic Pressure on Taiwan's Allies, Nicaragua Switches Recognition, Vatican Under Scrutiny

China's Diplomatic Offensive Against Taiwan

China is actively pursuing a strategy to diminish Taiwan's international diplomatic space, leveraging its economic and political influence to persuade countries to switch official recognition from Taipei to Beijing. This effort is rooted in Beijing's 'One China' policy, which asserts that Taiwan is an inalienable part of Chinese territory. This ongoing diplomatic offensive has seen several nations sever long-standing ties with Taiwan, with Nicaragua's 2021 decision being a notable example, and the Vatican now facing similar pressure.

Nicaragua's Shift to Beijing

On December 9, 2021, Nicaragua announced its decision to break diplomatic relations with Taiwan and establish ties with the People's Republic of China. The Nicaraguan foreign ministry issued a statement recognizing the 'One China' policy and affirming that 'The People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government that represents all of China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of the Chinese territory.' This move left Taiwan with only 14 formal diplomatic allies at the time.

The decision by President Daniel Ortega's government was met with 'heartfelt pain and regret' by Taiwan, which accused Nicaragua of disregarding a 'longstanding and close friendship.' Taiwan had previously provided significant financial support to Nicaragua, including a $3 million donation to police in 2018 and a $100 million loan in 2019, alongside various development projects. Analysts suggested that Nicaragua was likely prompted by 'an offer they couldn't refuse' from China, potentially involving foreign aid, trade deals, or investment projects. The United States criticized Nicaragua's decision, linking it to what it described as 'sham' elections in November 2021.

Pressure on the Holy See

The Holy See, the central administration of the Roman Catholic Church, remains Taiwan's only diplomatic ally in Europe and holds significant symbolic weight. Reports from Italian media, including Corriere della Sera, have indicated that China is intensifying pressure on the Vatican to sever its diplomatic relations with Taiwan in exchange for more formal ties with Beijing.

The Vatican has maintained an embassy in Taipei since the 1940s, having no official diplomatic presence in Beijing since 1951. While the Holy See signed a provisional agreement with Beijing in 2018 regarding the appointment of bishops in mainland China, which has since been renewed, Chinese diplomats reportedly continue to coerce the Vatican to 'choose sides.' Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that its relations with the Vatican remain 'solid' and communication channels are 'open and smooth.' The Vatican's historical stance is that it has never initiated the severing of diplomatic relations with any country.

Broader Implications of China's Strategy

China's diplomatic strategy involves offering substantial economic incentives, such as large infrastructure projects, zero-interest loans, and trade deals, to countries that switch recognition. This approach has led to a steady decline in Taiwan's diplomatic partners. Since 2016, Taiwan has lost several allies, including Panama (2017), El Salvador (2018), the Dominican Republic (2018), the Solomon Islands (2019), Kiribati (2019), Honduras (2023), and Nauru (2024). The goal of these actions is to isolate Taiwan on the international stage and reinforce Beijing's claim of sovereignty over the island.