Afghanistan Faces Unprecedented Influx of Nearly 3 Million Returnees Amid Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

Massive Influx Strains Afghan Resources

Afghanistan is currently facing an unprecedented humanitarian challenge as nearly 3 million people have returned to the country in 2025, primarily due to deportations and repatriation efforts from neighboring Iran and Pakistan. This massive influx, with some estimates indicating over 2.4 million Afghans returning from these two countries so far this year, is placing immense strain on a nation already struggling with profound economic and humanitarian crises. As of late July 2025, approximately 1,668,000 Afghans had returned, including 1,280,000 from Iran and 389,000 from Pakistan.

The scale of returns has been significant, with daily arrivals from Iran averaging around 11,000 people in July 2025. In 2024, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported that over 1.2 million undocumented Afghan migrants returned from Iran, with 67% of these being forced deportations.

Deportation Policies Drive Mass Returns

The primary drivers behind this mass movement are intensified deportation policies in Iran and Pakistan. Iranian authorities have announced plans to deport 2 million undocumented Afghan migrants by the end of March 2025, citing economic pressures and rising anti-Afghan sentiment. Reports indicate that many returnees from Iran have faced mistreatment, with some having their legal documents shredded.

Similarly, Pakistan initiated its 'Illegal Foreigners' Repatriation Plan' (IFRP) in October 2023, targeting undocumented Afghans. This plan expanded in 2025 to include holders of Afghan Citizen Cards (ACC) and Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, with the validity of PoR cards expiring on June 30, 2025, rendering the continued stay of cardholders unlawful. Pakistan has justified these actions by citing security concerns and economic strain. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and the UNHCR, have urged both countries to halt unlawful deportations and ensure returns are voluntary, safe, and dignified.

Exacerbated Humanitarian Needs

The influx of returnees is severely exacerbating Afghanistan's already dire humanitarian situation. The country faces a myriad of crises, including a fragile economy, high unemployment rates, and the devastating impact of natural disasters such as deadly earthquakes in eastern Afghanistan in 2025 that killed over 2,000 people. More than half of Afghanistan's population, estimated at 23.7 million people, including 9.2 million children, requires vital humanitarian assistance.

Returnees often arrive exhausted and in desperate need of basic necessities. Many have lost their homes, assets, and hope, returning to a country where they may have no social ties or support networks. Challenges include:

• Shelter: Many returnees lack adequate housing, with some families forced to live in temporary shelters or with relatives.
• Food Security: Over half of returnee families report not having enough food, with food insecurity worsening over time.
• Livelihoods: The fragile economy struggles to absorb the influx, intensifying unemployment pressures.
• Vulnerable Populations: Women and girls, who represent nearly half of those returning, face significant barriers to education and employment due to existing restrictions. There is also a growing number of unaccompanied or separated children among returnees.

Strained Aid Efforts and Funding Gaps

International and local aid organizations are working to provide assistance at border crossings and within Afghanistan, but the scale and pace of returns are placing significant strain on resources. Organizations like the IOM, UNHCR, UN-Habitat, and Islamic Relief are on the ground providing life-saving aid.

However, funding remains a critical challenge. The 2024 humanitarian appeal for Afghanistan was only 20% funded, and for 2025, only 29% of the needed $478 million has been received. This underfunding hampers relief activities and the ability to provide long-term solutions for reintegration. The UN has warned that without sustained international support, the ongoing mass influx risks driving further onward movement and destabilizing the region.