Ukraine Reports No Immediate Threat from Belarus Border Following Zapad-2025 Drills

Border Situation Monitored Post-Exercises

Ukraine's State Border Guard Service (SBGS) has reported no current activity or movement of Russian equipment along the border with Belarus, following the conclusion of the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercises, Zapad-2025. This assessment was provided by Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the SBGS, who stated that the situation along the border has not changed since before, during, and after the drills.

The Zapad-2025 exercises, which involved both Russian and Belarusian forces, took place from September 12 to September 16, 2025. During the active phase of these maneuvers, Ukrainian border guards observed no direct threats or provocations. Demchenko highlighted that the training grounds utilized for the exercises were located significantly deep within Belarusian territory, minimizing any direct impact on Ukraine's border.

Russian Troop Withdrawal Underway

Following the culmination of Zapad-2025, Ukrainian intelligence and border services have observed the withdrawal of Russian forces from Belarus. According to Demchenko, Russian units began winding down their presence and preparing for departure to Russian territory shortly after the drills ended. Some reports indicate that all Russian troops have now completely left Belarus.

The number of Russian military personnel involved in this year's exercises was notably smaller compared to previous iterations. For instance, in 2023, up to 12,000 Russian troops were stationed in Belarus for training. Official Belarusian figures for Zapad-2025 indicated approximately 13,000 personnel in total, a substantial reduction from the estimated 200,000 claimed for Zapad-2021. This scaled-down participation was noted by Ukrainian officials, with Demchenko stating that the number of Russian forces was 'insignificant' this year.

Persistent Threat Perception

Despite the current lack of direct military activity, Ukraine's State Border Guard Service maintains that the northern direction remains a 'potentially threatening' one. This assessment stems from Belarus's continued support for the Russian Federation. Belarusian forces continue to maintain a small number of units near the Ukrainian border, a posture that has been in place since 2022.

The Zapad-2025 exercises themselves were designed to test the defensive readiness of the Union State (Russia and Belarus) and practice operations to repel potential aggression. The drills reportedly included scenarios involving nuclear weapons and the testing of Russia's new Oreshnik missile system. The exercises drew international attention, with observers from NATO countries, including the United States, Turkey, and Hungary, present. Neighboring Poland, citing national security concerns, closed its border with Belarus during the exercises.

Conclusion

As of the latest reports, Ukraine's border with Belarus remains calm, with no observed movement of Russian military equipment or personnel following the Zapad-2025 exercises. While the immediate threat has subsided with the withdrawal of Russian forces, Ukrainian authorities continue to monitor the situation closely, acknowledging the enduring potential for risk due to Belarus's ongoing alignment with Russia.