Russia Escalates Rhetoric Against Finland, Echoing Pre-Ukraine Invasion Tactics, ISW Warns

Kremlin's Coordinated Information Campaign Targets Finland

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a warning that top Russian officials are engaged in a coordinated information campaign against Finland, a NATO ally. This campaign reportedly employs rhetoric strikingly similar to the narratives used by the Kremlin prior to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The ISW suggests that this strategy aims to undermine Finland's leadership and foster perceptions of domestic instability.

Senior Russian Officials Issue Direct Threats and Accusations

Recent statements from high-ranking Russian figures have intensified concerns. On September 18, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Finland had 'abandoned neutrality in favor of revanchism' and that its 'neutral veneer peeled off.' Concurrently, Presidential Envoy Sergey Ivanov stated that relations with Helsinki were 'effectively destroyed' due to Finland's alignment with NATO. Ivanov's involvement is seen by analysts as a significant indicator of Moscow's serious intentions, given his close ties to President Vladimir Putin.

Further escalating the rhetoric, State Duma International Affairs Committee First Deputy Head Alexei Chepa alleged on September 18, 2025, that Finland's NATO membership had led to a decline in Russian property purchases and visits, resulting in 'depopulation.' In an opinion piece published by Kremlin newswire TASS on September 8, 2025, Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev directly threatened Finland, asserting that confrontation 'could lead to the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.' Medvedev also accused Finland of historical ties to Nazi Germany and harboring 'genocidal intent,' echoing false justifications previously used for the Ukraine invasion.

The 'Ukraine Playbook' and NATO Context

The ISW explicitly highlights that the current Russian rhetoric against Finland mirrors the 'playbook' used to establish informational conditions justifying aggression against Ukraine. This includes repeating false accusations of Nazism, ethnic cleansing, and revanchist goals.

Finland officially joined NATO in April 2023, a decision largely prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This move ended Finland's long-standing military non-alignment and significantly extended NATO's shared border with Russia. While Russia's initial reaction to Finland's and Sweden's NATO applications in May 2022 was described as 'muted,' with President Putin stating he had 'no problems' with their membership, the tone became markedly more aggressive after Finland's formal accession.

These verbal threats are accompanied by other incidents, such as Estonia's accusation on September 19, 2025, that three Russian fighter jets violated its airspace over the Gulf of Finland, an incident that NATO subsequently intercepted. Such actions are viewed as part of Russia's broader hybrid warfare campaign aimed at sowing fear and discord within Europe.