Macron Signals Imminent Reimposition of UN Sanctions on Iran

European Powers Prepare for Sanctions 'Snapback'

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday that major European nations are poised to reimpose international sanctions on Iran by the end of the month. Speaking in an interview with Israel's Channel 12, Macron stated that Iran's efforts to avert these measures have been 'not serious'. This declaration follows a 30-day process initiated in late August by the E3 – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – to trigger the 'snapback' mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231.

Context of the Nuclear Deal and Violations

The potential reimposition of sanctions stems from accusations by the E3 that Iran has significantly breached its commitments under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions. However, European officials assert that Iran's nuclear program has advanced to 'unprecedented levels'. Key concerns include:

• An enriched uranium stockpile reportedly 40 times the limit set by the JCPOA.
• Several hundred kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity.
• Rollbacks in monitoring measures by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The E3 had previously offered Iran a temporary extension of Resolution 2231, contingent on specific actions such as restoring IAEA access, accounting for highly enriched uranium, and resuming negotiations with the United States. However, Iran reportedly did not engage with this offer. While Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented a new proposal to the E3, it was deemed insufficient, seeking major concessions without concrete Iranian action.

UN Vote and Diplomatic Standoff

The looming sanctions come as the UN Security Council is scheduled to vote on Friday on a draft resolution that would permanently lift UN sanctions on Iran. Diplomats anticipate this resolution will either fail to secure the necessary nine votes or face a veto from the United States, the United Kingdom, or France. Should the resolution not pass, the snapback mechanism will automatically trigger, reinstating sanctions by September 27 or 28.

The sanctions that would be reimposed include a ban on conventional arms, limits on ballistic missile programs, freezes on Iranian assets, and restrictions on uranium enrichment. Iran has consistently denied seeking nuclear weapons, maintaining that its nuclear activities are solely for peaceful purposes. Iranian officials have warned that activating the snapback mechanism would lead to their exclusion from future nuclear negotiations. Tensions in the region have been high, particularly after a 12-day Israeli war on Iran in June, during which the US reportedly struck three Iranian nuclear sites.