Climate Change Fuels Malaria Surge in Africa, Threatening Hundreds of Thousands of Lives

Climate change is exacerbating the malaria crisis in Africa, posing a significant threat to human lives. A research consortium focused on malaria control has issued a warning, emphasizing the need for immediate action to mitigate the impact of climate change on malaria transmission.

A climate impact model developed by Boston Consulting Group and the Malaria Atlas Project forecasts a substantial increase in malaria-related deaths between 2030 and 2049 due to climate change. The model predicts an additional 554,000 deaths compared to a scenario where the current climate remains stable. Extreme weather events are expected to be the primary driver of this increase, accounting for the vast majority of the projected deaths.

The model also suggests that climate change could diminish the effectiveness of existing malaria control measures. While scaling up current interventions could help reduce the number of additional deaths, climate change may weaken their impact by up to 17 percent, making progress vulnerable. Furthermore, the model indicates that by 2050, climate change will complicate malaria eradication efforts for a significant portion of sub-Saharan Africa's population, affecting 1.3 billion people.

Shifting temperature and rainfall patterns are expanding and altering malaria risk zones, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations, particularly young children. Extreme weather events are a major factor in malaria outbreaks, often leaving displaced communities without essential protections like mosquito nets and access to healthcare.

In 2023, Africa accounted for the overwhelming majority of global malaria cases and deaths. The continent reported 251 million infections and nearly 580,000 deaths, with a significant proportion of these deaths occurring in children under five.