Xi’s friendship with Putin won’t be lost, says analyst

The autocrats' shared ambition to reshape the world and roll back the US' global influence have been reflected in the stories of China's President Xi Jinping and Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

But the chaos that engulfed Russia last weekend when Wagner mercenaries turned against the Kremlin has put that alliance to the test, and raised serious doubts about Xi's no-limits friendship with Putin.

In supporting Putin in his war in Ukraine, Xi has exposed China to potentially severe damage if Ukraine's European allies decide to cut down their economic ties with China or if chaos in Russia threatens China's trade ties with the country.

If Russia loses, Xi will face a worldwide embarrassment. But he has enough to lose if he backs out of the alliance now.

Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, said that Xi appeared to have underestimated the damage the Ukraine war would inflict on Putin's authority.

It's hard to believe that either man anticipated the grinding war of attrition that has resulted, and historically problems on the battlefield tend to undermine political stability in authoritarian states, which are often more brittle than they appear.

The Xi is likely following developments in Ukraine closely in deciding how to pursue China's long-term ambition of regaining control of Taiwan, Thompson said.

But Xi's victory oversaw the potential and stability of Putin's regime, and recent events underscore the political risks to authoritarians that get bogged down in costly military intervention, a lesson that Xi is unlikely to ignore in his own thinking about Taiwan.

To ignore Putin's demands, Xi has too much to lose.

Despite the chaos in Russia having disturbed officials in Beijing, China has publicly sought to downplay the crisis.

This is Russia's internal affair, a Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman said in a statement, emphasising the long-term strategic alliance of the states.

The CEO of The Atlas Group, Jonathan Ward, said Xi's collaboration with Putin was so central to China's global strategic objectives that it was impossible for him to contemplate discontinuing it.

The Wagner march towards Moscow may raise concerns in Beijing about Putin's stability and control over power, but it is unlikely to diminish the importance that Xi places on partnership with Russia in his long-term and deep-seated strategy of confrontation with the West, a strategy in which Putin's Russia is far and away his most significant partner.

The relationship between Xi and Vladimir Putin in China is one in which he arguably invested more personal diplomatic resources than any other, and the two dictators have articulated a shared vision of world affairs. The substantial investment of personal political capital and broader strategic effort is too substantial to be abandoned or lost. If there are further signs that Putin's influence on power is weakening and chaos could engulf Russia, Xi faces a tough choice.

If he decides to step in and prop up the ailing regime of the Kremlin, he risks Western nations severing economic ties with China, and badly damaging China's already faltering post-COVID recovery.

But Ward believes Putin is so important to Xi's worldwide strategic ambitions that he would likely take the hit.

If further signs of instability occur in Russia, it is likely that Xi would do what he can do to stabilize the regime, assist Putin, and keep him in power, Ward said.

But Thompson conceded that Xi already appeared to be willing to offer Putin his unconditional support in the form of weapons and other military equipment to back the Ukraine invasion.

China has also been hesitant to finalise a gas pipeline deal that would offer the Kremlin an economic lifeline despite Western sanctions, and experts may even be casting a shadow over a potential successor to Putin.

It is unlikely that Xi will go out of his way to support Putin's regime if that entails significant risks to China itself. He added, Ultimately, Xi is going to do what's best for Beijing, regardless of events in Moscow.